One of the happy results of the horrible, shameful election we just endured was that a number of states, including California, have legalized marijuana! (Can I get an AMEN?). As a result, we have a new source of taxable revenue and people there will no longer be arrested for the victim-less crimes of possession and personal use. It gets a little bit stickier when you turn your attention to the effects this is likely to have south of the border. In Mexico, the cartels that run the weed game have suddenly lost their biggest market. Marijuana is not going to be a very profitable enterprise any more. What happens now? If they ante up and move on to harder drugs they will have to compete with larger cartels who have already cornered the cocaine, heroin, and designer drug markets. There will be infighting, mergers and acquisitions, turmoil. All around them, innocents will die. I’m not saying we shouldn’t legalize weed. We should just be aware that even something as seemingly positive as marijuana legalization can have terrible side effects.
Mexico is on track to legalizing weed as well. They just voted to allow certain cases of medical growing and use. This is the first step towards full legalization, even though that will take a lot longer to pull off. Legalization in Mexico would be wonderful for the economy, terrible for the cartels, and would generally make things a lot better. In the meantime, as far as anyone is aware, there is no plan in place for dealing with the blow-back from these steps. The government seems content to let the chips fall as they may rather than stepping up and putting protections in place to offset the violence that will result in denying power to the cartels.
Other wonderful examples of unintended consequences exist in the related system of gun and human trafficking. Legal and illegal guns move from the U.S. to Mexico. Drugs, money, and humans are hustled north to the States. Meanwhile the gun debate rages in the U.S. with gun advocates (the nutty ones) claiming that reasonable regulations will infringe on their rights in some mythical vacuum where there is no ocean of murders, suicides, and accidental gun deaths every single year and gun-toting citizens prevent crimes every day with illegal weapons purchased without background checks through loopholes like gun shows. Whatever. I’m happy to debate these issues ad nauseum.
What isn’t talked about north of the border, is the effect our lax gun laws have on the people of Mexico. Mexico, as of 2013, had only one licensed gun shop in the entire country. There are an estimated 2.5 million legal firearms in Mexico, but an additional 13 million illegal firearms, mostly owned by organized crime. More than 250,000 illegal weapons cross the southern border every year. Thanks in part to our lack of regulation, guns are readily available to criminals, obviously with the best firepower going to organized crime. This helps cement their power, fend off the police, and efficiently terrorize the public. Try tracking those serial numbers. Try holding U.S. gun manufacturers or retailers accountable for tracking the weapons they sell. All a moot point, since we are far from progress on gun issues. It does bear repeating that we should be talking more about how our lax gun laws are being used in many other places, particularly cartel-land south of the border, to kill innocents.
Meanwhile, while every effort at tracking or restricting guns is stymied, other countries are doing everything they can to try to better track the money that is spent in their economies. Turns out this may be more damaging to the freedoms of the people than tighter gun laws could every be.
India, for example, is moving away from paper money to an all digital system. This is great if you want a high level of centralized control over the economy. It’s a big thorn in the side of organized crime and other illegitimate enterprises. There are many other positive benefits as well. One unintended consequence of moving away from paper currency is the enormous negative effect on women(mostly poor, and by extension, children). Women, certainly an underclass in Indian society, are able to squirrel away small amounts of cash so that they can free themselves somewhat from economic slavery to their husbands and male family members. They are able to achieve some amount of independence by earning money on the side in small all-cash enterprises. This, they would be unable to keep from the men without the secrecy of cash. Similarly, while removing cash hinders crime, it similarly hinders righteous revolutions from funding and ultimately mounting resistance to unjust leadership. This seems more and more important these days.
This brings us back to the U.S. Election. Our Tweeter in Chief offers fertile ground for exploring unintended consequences. The focus in the news this week are his promised border taxes for the goods companies like Ford and Toyota produce in Mexico. The auto industry is 3% of Mexico’s GDP. 70% of this is exported to the U.S. Many cars built in the U.S. use Mexican parts and vice versa. El Cheeto seems to think that globalization is a linear thing. That, somehow, making things harder on Mexico will not catastrophically hurt the entire auto industry. He also seems to think that U.S. buyers won’t mind paying a lot more for their vehicles. Never mind that the Toyota plant was moving to Mexico from Canada. Toyota reminded Trump that it employs 136,000 people in the U.S., suggesting that he may be barking up the wrong tree with his Twitter policy initiatives.
I suppose we will just have to watch the devolution unfold. It’s certainly not going to stop, but we can grit our teeth, pay close attention, and be as politically active as our schedules allow. While we are paying attention to the big issues, I’m going to pay special attention to the littler ones that tend to squeak past us as we rail against the destruction of the environment, the loss of our civil rights, and any number of other awful things we are going to continually confront in the new year.
Feliz aňo nuevo.
